Rivian, Lucid and XPeng make the list of 20 EV companies expected to grow sales most quickly through 2025


This is the second of two Deep Dive articles screening EV-related stocks. The first screen was based on analysts’ ratings and consensus price targets. This screen is based on projected sales growth from 2023 through 2025.

Following a dismal 2022, this year has been remarkable for stocks of electric-vehicle manufacturers, for those in other industries tied to it, and for those developing autonomous cars.

With such remarkable performance this year, including a doubling of shares for Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-1.76%
and a 34% increase for Rivian Automotive Inc.
RIVN,
-7.26%,
along with an increase in its production estimate for 2023 on Thursday, it is a good time to look as far ahead as we can at industry growth projections from elevated 2023 baselines.

This follows another screen today of EV-related stocks based on analysts’ ratings and price targets.

For this next screen, we again started with three ETFs that track the EV/autonomous space and related industries:

  • The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF
    DRIV
    DRIV has $842 million in assets under management and holds 75 stocks. It tracks an index of companies around the world that are involved with the development and manufacture of autonomous-driving systems and/or EVs. The companies’ primary stock listings need to be developed markets, South Korea or Taiwan, which means it has relatively low exposure to companies in China, which make up 4% of the portfolio. The fund is 57% concentrated in U.S. stocks, with 11% in Japan and 4.5% in Canada.

  • The $458 million iShares Self-Driving EV & Tech ETF IDRV IDRV holds 53 stocks to track an index that weights companies around the world by their involvement in the autonomous or electric-vehicle industries. U.S. companies make up 37% of the portfolio, while companies in China make up 16% and those in South Korea have a 12% weight.

  • The $185 million KraneShares Electric Vehicle and Future Mobility Index ETF
    KARS
    holds shares of 61 companies making up an index of companies involved with EV development and manufacturing. It also has exposure to the lithium and copper mining industry, as well as fuel-cell technology.

Together, the three funds hold shares of 144 companies. For a screen based on expected sales growth, we narrowed the list to 117 companies that are each covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and for which consensus sales estimates are available for the next two years.

We looked at calendar-year consensus estimates through 2025 to see which companies were expected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue from a 2023 baseline. We used calendar-year estimates because some companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar. This screen incorporates a significant upward move for some companies’ 2023 estimates.

From the group of 117 companies, these 20 are expected to show the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2023 through 2025. The consensus sales estimates for non-U.S. companies are in millions of U.S. dollars, as converted by FactSet.

Company

Ticker

Country

Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2025

Estimated sales – 2023

Estimated sales – 2024

Estimated sales – 2025

Held by

Innoviz Technologies Ltd.

INVZ,
-5.57%
Israel

347.1%

$16

$80

$318

DRIV, IDRV

Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

LAZR,
-4.02%
U.S.

168.9%

$86

$274

$621

DRIV, IDRV

Nikola Corp.

NKLA,
-10.18%
U.S.

163.8%

$124

$369

$862

DRIV, IDRV

Lucid Group Inc.

LCID,
-3.55%
U.S.

140.4%

$818

$2,024

$4,726

DRIV, IDRV, KARS

Fisker Inc. Class A

FSR,
-1.85%
U.S.

117.1%

$1,085

$3,233

$5,115

IDRV, KARS

Chunbo Co. Ltd.

278280,
+5.73%
South Korea

81.7%

$214

$481

$708

IDRV

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A

PSNY,
-1.88%
Sweden

78.3%

$3,109

$5,324

$9,878

IDRV

EVgo Inc. Class A

EVGO,
-2.53%
U.S.

73.9%

$138

$256

$416

IDRV

Ballard Power Systems Inc.

BLDP,
+3.30%
Canada

63.7%

$88

$140

$235

DRIV

Piedmont Lithium Inc.

PLL,
-1.29%
U.S.

63.5%

$212

$439

$568

DRIV

Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A

RIVN,
-7.26%
U.S.

62.1%

$4,282

$7,060

$11,247

IDRV, KARS

Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd.

361610,
-0.10%
South Korea

58.0%

$555

$911

$1,385

IDRV, KARS

Lithium Americas Corp.

LAC,
+0.56%
Canada

57.6%

$298

$604

$741

KARS

Plug Power Inc.

PLUG,
-1.51%
U.S.

52.1%

$1,278

$1,987

$2,957

DRIV, KARS

indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A

INDI,
-2.12%
U.S.

50.3%

$250

$402

$565

DRIV

XPeng Inc. ADR Class A

XPEV,
-5.05%
China

49.3%

$4,496

$7,630

$10,025

DRIV, KARS, IDRV

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.

LYC,
-0.29%
Australia

44.5%

$544

$777

$1,137

KARS

Li Auto Inc. Class A

2015,
-5.52%
China

42.9%

$15,569

$23,687

$31,790

IDRV, KARS

ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A

CHPT,
-0.74%
U.S.

42.6%

$660

$966

$1,341

IDRV, KARS

L & F Co. Ltd.

066970,
+4.18%
South Korea

42.3%

$4,518

$6,703

$9,146

KARS

Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company, including business profiles.

Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

For XPeng Inc.
XPEV,
-5.05%,
the table only includes the American depositary receipts (ADR) held by DRIV. But the company’s Class A shares
9868,
-3.63%
are held by KARS and IDRV.

You can see that the 2023 consensus revenue estimate sets a low baseline for Innoviz Technologies Ltd. INVZ, which tops the list. This underlines the case for doing a lot of research on your own, to form your own opinion about a company’s long-term business prospects before buying an individual stock. A company at an early stage that is expected to grow its sales quickly may also be expected to lose money over the next few years.

Leaving the companies in the same order, here’s a summary of opinion among analysts polled by FactSet. Share prices are in local currencies where the stocks are listed.

Company

Ticker

Share “buy” ratings

Aug. 8 price

Consensus price target

Implied 12-month upside potential

Innoviz Technologies Ltd.

INVZ,
-5.57%
83%

3.41

8.42

147%

Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A

LAZR,
-4.02%
73%

6.71

12.50

86%

Nikola Corp.

NKLA,
-10.18%
13%

2.21

2.70

22%

Lucid Group Inc.

LCID,
-3.55%
42%

7.19

8.00

11%

Fisker Inc. Class A

FSR,
-1.85%
33%

5.93

9.50

60%

Chunbo Co. Ltd.

278280,
+5.73%
90%

162,400.00

278,000.00

71%

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A

PSNY,
-1.88%
50%

4.25

5.37

26%

EVgo Inc. Class A

EVGO,
-2.53%
38%

4.94

6.93

40%

Ballard Power Systems Inc.

BLDP,
+3.81%
13%

6.30

8.20

30%

Piedmont Lithium Inc.

PLL,
-1.29%
100%

48.06

104.19

117%

Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A

RIVN,
-7.26%
54%

24.80

28.19

14%

Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd.

361610,
-0.10%
92%

96,600.00

128,043.48

33%

Lithium Americas Corp.

LAC,
+0.56%
100%

24.98

47.23

89%

Plug Power Inc.

PLUG,
-1.51%
67%

10.91

18.57

70%

Indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A

INDI,
-2.12%
100%

8.24

15.67

90%

XPeng Inc. ADR Class A

XPEV,
-5.05%
62%

17.73

14.65

-17%

Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.

LYC,
-0.29%
77%

6.95

9.06

30%

Li Auto Inc. Class A

2015,
-5.52%
90%

177.50

191.43

8%

ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A

CHPT,
-0.74%
75%

7.99

15.36

92%

L & F Co. Ltd.

066970,
+4.18%
86%

215,500.00

373,285.72

73%

Source: FactSet

Don’t miss: These dividend stocks yield as much as 11% while meeting strict criteria for estimated cash flow

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *