Rivian earnings: Wall Street eyes $1 billion in Q2 revenue for EV maker

Rivian Automotive Inc. is slated to report second-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting the EV maker’s revenue to hit $1 billion after blowout quarterly production and sales numbers.

last month surprised Wall Street by reporting second-quarter sales that were up about 60% quarter-on-quarter, and production about 50% higher as well, and crucially kept its 2023 production guidance of 50,000 vehicles.

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“With nearly 14,000 vehicles built and 12,640 delivered in the last quarter, the company should have revenue in excess of $1 billion” in the quarter, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

“Rivian’s losses have progressively dropped and their losses on net income will need to be under $1 billion in the quarter to keep investors happy,” Fiorani said.

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts polled by FactSet expect Rivian to report an adjusted loss $1.43 a share, which would be narrower than the loss of $1.62 a share in the second quarter of 2022.

Revenue: The expectations are indeed for $1 billion in revenue, according to FactSet. That would be close to tripling the revenue of $365 million in the second quarter of 2022.

Stock movement: Rivian shares have been on a tear recently, up 95% in the last three months, which compares with an advance of about 10% for the S&P 500 index
in the same period.

That outperformance holds so far this year, albeit less so — the stock is up about 37% so far this year, and the S&P has gained around 17%.

What else to expect: Rivian recently added new options for customers, offering models and trims that are about $8,000 cheaper.

“Importantly, these numbers are both under the $80,000 [manufacturer’s suggested retail price] cap needed to qualify for the U.S. EV tax credit from the Inflation Reduction Act,” Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank said in a recent note.

Investors also will be keen to see if Rivian continues to be on a road to recovery from supply-chain-related production problems earlier this year.

George Gianarikas at Canaccord Genuity said in a recent note he expects “a continued message of stabilization and optimism.”

“We continue to believe Rivian is on its way to capturing its fair share of the EV market over time through a sound, thorough vertically integrated strategy that should lead to a desirable customer experience and strong profitability over time,” the analyst said.

Rivian executives, including Chief Executive RJ Scaringe and Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough, are holding a conference call with analysts after the results are out. The call will be webcast.

Finally, any color around the rollout of Rivian’s second EV, its R1S SUV, will be welcomed. The SUV appeals to a wider audience than the R1T pickup, and a smooth roll-out of that model “will be key to the company reaching profitability,” AutoForecasts Solutions’ Fiorani said.

“More competition is arriving in this already competitive market, so the next year will be crucial to the company’s long-term success. A positive report for the second quarter is a necessary first step,” he said.

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